{"id":7248,"date":"2023-04-18T10:53:24","date_gmt":"2023-04-18T14:53:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jordanbarab.com\/confinedspace\/?p=7248"},"modified":"2023-04-18T10:53:24","modified_gmt":"2023-04-18T14:53:24","slug":"atf-doubles-down-on-unscientific-finding-of-arson-in-2013-west-fertilizer-blast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jordanbarab.com\/confinedspace\/2023\/04\/18\/atf-doubles-down-on-unscientific-finding-of-arson-in-2013-west-fertilizer-blast\/","title":{"rendered":"ATF Doubles Down on Unscientific Finding of Arson in 2013 West Fertilizer Blast"},"content":{"rendered":"

Like certain politicians, some government agencies just have no shame.<\/p>\n

Despite widespread condemnation by fire investigation experts and the citizens of West, Texas, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms (ATF) issued a reminder <\/a>yesterday that they still consider the fire that caused the catastrophic 2013 West Fertilizer explosion to be the result of arson.<\/p>\n

I have written numerous times (here<\/a> and here<\/a>) about ATF’s unscientific finding, announced<\/a> at a hastily convened press conference on May 11, 2016, that the fire that led to the ammonium nitrate explosion was deliberately set.\u00a0 The agency also offered a $50,000 reward “for information leading to the arrest of the person or persons responsible for the fire and subsequent explosion.”<\/p>\n

Yesterday was the 10th anniversary<\/a> of the explosion that killed 15 people and destroyed much of the town of West, Texas.<\/p>\n

Reporters have focused previously on the ATF’s dubious finding (here<\/a>, here<\/a>\u00a0and here<\/a>.)\u00a0 And yesterday, CBS News in Texas ran a story (with videos) about continuing skepticism<\/a> about the ATF’s finding, as well as how the ATF’s conclusion handed the Trump administration a convenient excuse<\/a> to roll back Obama era regulations that strengthened chemical plant security.<\/p>\n

The ATF has never actually claimed to have any evidence of arson; they just couldn’t find any other causes.<\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

No Evidence of Arson<\/h2>\n

As I have explained numerous times before, the ATF has never actually claimed to have any evidence of arson; they just couldn’t find any other cause — such as a burning cigarette, an electrical problem, or a backfiring engine. So, through process of elimination — a process known as “negative corpus” —\u00a0 they concluded that the cause must be arson.<\/p>\n

The first problem the ATF finding\u00a0 is that the nation’s leading fire protection and investigation associations believe negative corpus is a deeply flawed process. \u00a0The National Fire Protection Association, in its guidance on fire investigations, states that \u201cThe negative corpus process is not consistent with the scientific method, is inappropriate, and should not be used because it generates untestable hypotheses, and may result in incorrect determinations of the ignition source and first fuel ignited.\u201d<\/p>\n

And the National Association of Fire Investigators advises against the use of the method \u2013 warning “if used inappropriately it could lead to erroneous conclusions.”<\/p>\n

The second problem is that the fire — whatever caused it — wasn’t the most important problem at West. As I’ve described before<\/p>\n

Ammonium nitrate (AN) doesn\u2019t just blow up by itself, or even if exposed to a small fire. \u00a0The best theory for the West explosion was a combination of high heat from a large, out-of-control fire that had liquefied the AN which was contaminated with nearby seeds, soot from the fire or other contaminants. \u00a0Fires may be difficult to prevent completely, but storage of AN in metal bins, or concrete (non-combustible)\u200b bins and buildings\u200b, away from contaminants (like seeds),\u00a0\u00a0along with \u200b with sprinklers to control a fire, minimizes the chance that a fire\u200b\u200b (however ignited) in the vicinity of AN will turn into an explosion.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

And that\u2019s exactly\u00a0why\u200b\u00a0what initiated the fire doesn\u2019t matter. Fires happen. You want to prevent them and control as many ignition sources\u00a0as possible, but the main concern is ensuring that ignition of a fire doesn\u2019t lead to a catastrophic explosion, and that\u2019s where good\u00a0\u200bdesign practices and\u00a0safety procedures\u00a0come in.\u00a0 If ammonium nitrate is properly stored and handled, you don\u2019t have to worry as much about fires and \u00a0ignition sources<\/strong>. If the mice chew through an electrical wire, if the Boy Scouts hold an illegal cookout, or if a rogue ISIS wannabe tosses in a Molotov cocktail, the facility may\u00a0start to burn, but no catastrophic explosion will occur because the AN is stored properly and measures are in place to control the fire.<\/p>\n

A Frozen Cold Case<\/h2>\n

So today America’s coldest cold case remains just as frozen as the day it was issued while the $50,000 reward remains uncollected, 7 years later.<\/p>\n

You’d think at this point, the ATF would just want to slink into a dark corner and hope everyone just forgets about their most embarrassing moment.<\/p>\n

But no.\u00a0 As I said before, these guys have no shame.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Like certain politicians, some government agencies just have no shame. Despite widespread condemnation by fire investigation experts and the citizens of West, Texas, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms (ATF) issued a reminder yesterday that they still consider the fire that caused the catastrophic 2013 West Fertilizer explosion to be the result of arson. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7251,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[112],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-7248","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-west-fertilizer-explosion","tag-texas"],"yoast_head":"\nATF Doubles Down on Unscientific Finding of Arson in 2013 West Fertilizer Blast - Confined Space<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Despite wide-spread doubt, the ATF continues stand by its dubious claim that the fire that lead to the West explosion was arson\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/jordanbarab.com\/confinedspace\/2023\/04\/18\/atf-doubles-down-on-unscientific-finding-of-arson-in-2013-west-fertilizer-blast\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"ATF Doubles Down on Unscientific Finding of Arson in 2013 West Fertilizer Blast - 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